Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +1.47
- -3.04 before the first game, -1.57 at the end
- Biggest boost
- +0.57
- Feb 20 vs POR · 29 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.51
- Apr 8 vs MEM · 15 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.16
- Last 20 games, vs 0.13 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-1.6 at age 24 in 2025-26 ranks 800th of 1,185 age-24 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Pat Garrity, 2000-01.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Garrity 2000-01 | 24 | -1.6 | +0.2, -0.2, under 10 games, -1.7, -1.4 | 91 |
| Austin Rivers 2016-17 | 24 | -1.8 | -1.3, -1.7, -0.7, -1.0, -1.2 | 91 |
| Dwayne Bacon 2018-19 | 23 | -1.7 | -2.5, -3.5, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 91 |
| Nick Young 2008-09 | 23 | -1.6 | -1.3, -1.2, -0.2, -0.3, +0.9 | 89 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. 2015-16 | 24 | -0.9 | -0.5, -0.4, -1.0, +0.6, +0.6 | 89 |
| Jarvis Hayes 2004-05 | 23 | -1.5 | -1.1, -2.1, -1.3, -0.5, -1.4 | 89 |
| Wayne Ellington 2011-12 | 24 | -1.4 | -0.8, -0.9, -0.9, -2.2, -0.7 | 88 |
| Jermaine Taylor 2010-11 | 24 | -1.4 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Nik Stauskas 2016-17 | 23 | -1.9 | -1.8, -3.1, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Derrick Williams 2014-15 | 23 | -2.3 | -2.4, -2.1, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Julian's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Julian Strawther's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $1.3M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $2.7M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$1.4M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.0
- Projected
- Retires at
- 24.3
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | DEN | 24 | 57 +2 | 15.1 | -1.57 | -0.21 | -1.36 | 800th of 1185 |
| 2024-25 | DEN | 23 | 65 +9 | 21.3 | -3.03 | -1.59 | -1.44 | 1046th of 1100 |
| 2023-24 | DEN | 22 | 50 +3 | 10.9 | -2.70 | -2.13 | -0.58 | 737th of 813 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 4.6 projected minutes and a pace of 94.9.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.2 | 1.9 |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 0.6 |
| Offensive | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Defensive | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| Assists | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| Steals | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| 3-pt attempts | 9.3 | 0.8 |
| FG attempts | 17.6 | 1.6 |
| FT attempts | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 41.1% · 34.5% · 78.0% | |
