Eastern Conference
Miami Heat
Record 0-0Projected 42.5-39.5Playoffs 59.3%Win conference 4.2%Win Finals 1.2%Lottery 40.7%Expected pick 16.4SRS +1.96
DARKO rating · #16 of 30
+2.0Worth about 40 wins over 82 games
Ratings through Oct 21, 2026
Where the rating comes from
Each player's DPM times their share of DARKO's projected team minutes, times five for the five players on the floor, split into offense and defense (points per 100 possessions; 0 is an average player). The columns add up to the team's numbers at the bottom, and offense plus defense is net. Players above average add +5.15; the ones below take away 3.17.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Offense+2.26 Defense+0.58 Net+2.84
- Bam Adebayo Offense+1.30 Defense+0.82 Net+2.12
- Davion Mitchell Offense-0.01 Defense+0.19 Net+0.18
- Keshad Johnson Offense-0.02 Defense+0.04 Net+0.02
- Simone Fontecchio Offense+0.02 Defense-0.03 Net-0.01
- Pelle Larsson Offense+0.02 Defense-0.11 Net-0.09
- Andrew Wiggins Offense-0.36 Defense-0.01 Net-0.37
- Tim Hardaway Jr. Offense+0.06 Defense-0.51 Net-0.45
- Nikola Jovic Offense-0.50 Defense0.00 Net-0.51
- Klay Thompson Offense-0.32 Defense-0.29 Net-0.61
- Bobby Portis Offense-0.28 Defense-0.44 Net-0.72
Players
| Player | Pos |
|---|
| Player | Pos | DPM | Off | Def | Fair Salary | Box | On/Off | MPG | Pace | Pts/100 | Ast/100 | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | |||||||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | F-G | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.0 | $13.8M | +0.1 | -0.8 | 26.6 | 102.2 | 24.7 | 3.7 | 45.7% | 36.5% | 77.0% |
| Bam Adebayo | C-F | +3.2 | +2.0 | +1.2 | $57.1M | +1.2 | +3.5 | 30.7 | 102.1 | 30.0 | 5.4 | 45.3% | 33.0% | 77.1% |
| Bobby Portis | F | -1.6 | -0.6 | -1.0 | $3.2M | -0.4 | -1.8 | 21.4 | 101.4 | 24.8 | 3.5 | 46.3% | 39.1% | 76.0% |
| Davion Mitchell | G | +0.3 | -0.0 | +0.3 | $22.6M | +0.2 | +0.2 | 29.5 | 101.9 | 17.0 | 10.1 | 46.8% | 36.5% | 70.6% |
| Dru Smith | G | -1.0 | -1.4 | +0.4 | $2.7M | -0.6 | -2.1 | 2.2 | 102.0 | 15.9 | 7.2 | 43.7% | 34.2% | 79.0% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | F-G | +4.3 | +3.4 | +0.9 | $61.6M | +3.3 | +4.4 | 30.9 | 102.1 | 40.9 | 9.2 | 60.5% | 28.4% | 64.9% |
| Keshad Johnson | F | +0.2 | -0.2 | +0.3 | $10.0M | +0.1 | +0.4 | 6.1 | 102.2 | 20.3 | 2.7 | 47.5% | 32.9% | 69.4% |
| Klay Thompson | G-F | -1.7 | -0.9 | -0.8 | $2.7M | -0.1 | -2.0 | 16.7 | 102.0 | 22.3 | 3.0 | 40.1% | 37.8% | 83.4% |
| Myron Gardner | F | -0.2 | -0.4 | +0.2 | $2.8M | -0.2 | -0.3 | 3.0 | 101.3 | 18.8 | 5.0 | 43.0% | 35.5% | 77.0% |
| Nick Richards | C | -2.1 | -2.3 | +0.2 | -$0.5M | -1.7 | -2.2 | 3.4 | 100.9 | 18.8 | 1.6 | 57.7% | 27.0% | 69.2% |
| Nikola Jovic | F | -1.4 | -1.4 | -0.0 | $2.3M | -2.0 | -0.8 | 17.1 | 101.4 | 20.5 | 5.6 | 42.8% | 34.1% | 75.5% |
| Pelle Larsson | G | -0.2 | +0.1 | -0.3 | $12.7M | +0.1 | -0.7 | 20.8 | 102.5 | 20.2 | 5.7 | 48.2% | 33.6% | 78.6% |
| Ryan Conwell | G | -2.2 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -$0.4M | -2.2 | -2.0 | 2.7 | 101.2 | 20.8 | 7.8 | 41.8% | 33.4% | 78.2% |
| Simone Fontecchio | F | -0.1 | +0.2 | -0.2 | $7.6M | +0.3 | -0.5 | 5.1 | 101.3 | 21.6 | 3.0 | 41.3% | 36.6% | 82.2% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | G | -1.2 | +0.2 | -1.4 | $5.6M | -1.8 | -1.1 | 17.6 | 101.4 | 23.4 | 2.9 | 40.9% | 36.4% | 79.6% |
| Tre Donaldson | G | -2.3 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -$0.2M | -2.3 | -2.8 | 2.4 | 101.7 | 17.9 | 7.1 | 42.5% | 33.0% | 75.9% |
| Vladislav Goldin | C | -3.2 | -2.9 | -0.3 | -$3.8M | -3.2 | -1.9 | 1.8 | 101.6 | 20.4 | 2.2 | 57.8% | 24.9% | 67.7% |
Core outlook
The rotation by projected minutes: age, rating and how long DARKO expects each player to last.
| Player | Age | DPM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | +4.3 | 6.0 | 95% |
| Bam Adebayo | 29 | +3.2 | 6.7 | 97% |
| Davion Mitchell | 28 | +0.3 | 5.0 | 86% |
| Andrew Wiggins | 31 | -0.7 | 3.4 | 60% |
| Bobby Portis | 31 | -1.6 | 1.5 | 20% |
| Pelle Larsson | 25 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 83% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 34 | -1.2 | 1.3 | 13% |
| Nikola Jovic | 23 | -1.4 | 2.9 | 44% |
| Klay Thompson | 36 | -1.7 | 0.9 | 7% |
Payroll against DARKO value
$214.2M of salary for $204.9M of DARKO fair value. The 12 best-paid players:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo : salary $54.8M, DARKO value $61.6M, surplus +$6.8M
- Bam Adebayo : salary $46.7M, DARKO value $57.1M, surplus +$10.4M
- Andrew Wiggins : salary $28.3M, DARKO value $13.8M, surplus -$14.4M
- Klay Thompson : salary $21.6M, DARKO value $2.7M, surplus -$18.9M
- Nikola Jovic : salary $15.2M, DARKO value $2.3M, surplus -$12.9M
- Bobby Portis : salary $13.6M, DARKO value $3.2M, surplus -$10.4M
- Davion Mitchell : salary $11.6M, DARKO value $22.6M, surplus +$11.0M
- Tim Hardaway Jr. : salary $6.1M, DARKO value $5.6M, surplus -$0.5M
- Dru Smith : salary $2.4M, DARKO value $2.7M, surplus +$0.3M
- Simone Fontecchio : salary $2.3M, DARKO value $7.6M, surplus +$5.3M
- Nick Richards : salary $2.3M, DARKO value -$0.5M, surplus -$2.8M
- Pelle Larsson : salary $2.2M, DARKO value $12.7M, surplus +$10.6M