Eastern Conference
Miami Heat
Record 5-6Projected 40.1-41.9Playoffs 59.4%Win conference 2.4%Win Finals 0.4%Lottery 40.6%Expected pick 14.7SRS +0.47
DARKO rating · #15 of 30
+2.5Worth about 43 wins over 82 games
Ratings through Nov 10, 2026
Where the rating comes from
Each player's DPM times their share of DARKO's projected team minutes, times five for the five players on the floor, split into offense and defense (points per 100 possessions; 0 is an average player). The columns add up to the team's numbers at the bottom, and offense plus defense is net. Players above average add +5.55; the ones below take away 3.10.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Offense+1.94 Defense+0.81 Net+2.75
- Bam Adebayo Offense+1.52 Defense+0.92 Net+2.43
- Davion Mitchell Offense+0.32 Defense-0.02 Net+0.31
- Pelle Larsson Offense-0.03 Defense+0.08 Net+0.05
- Tim Hardaway Jr. Offense+0.03 Defense-0.24 Net-0.21
- Bobby Portis Offense-0.20 Defense-0.25 Net-0.45
- Ryan Conwell Offense-0.39 Defense-0.07 Net-0.46
- Andrew Wiggins Offense-0.39 Defense-0.15 Net-0.54
- Klay Thompson Offense-0.38 Defense-0.74 Net-1.12
Players
| Player | Pos |
|---|
| Player | Pos | DPM | Off | Def | Fair Salary | Box | On/Off | MPG | Pace | Pts/100 | Ast/100 | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | |||||||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | F-G | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.3 | $6.5M | -0.6 | -1.2 | 22.3 | 100.4 | 21.4 | 3.4 | 45.3% | 36.6% | 76.9% |
| Bam Adebayo | C-F | +3.3 | +2.1 | +1.3 | $52.2M | +2.0 | +3.5 | 33.6 | 100.5 | 27.8 | 5.5 | 47.2% | 32.9% | 77.1% |
| Bobby Portis | F | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | $4.3M | -0.1 | -1.4 | 17.4 | 100.4 | 22.1 | 3.7 | 44.8% | 38.9% | 76.4% |
| Davion Mitchell | G | +0.4 | +0.4 | -0.0 | $24.2M | +0.2 | +0.4 | 33.5 | 100.3 | 19.2 | 10.4 | 46.5% | 36.4% | 72.0% |
| Dru Smith | G | -0.5 | -0.9 | +0.4 | $2.5M | +0.2 | -2.1 | 2.4 | 100.7 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 43.2% | 34.9% | 79.5% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | F-G | +3.8 | +2.7 | +1.1 | $58.5M | +4.5 | +3.6 | 33.5 | 100.4 | 42.1 | 8.8 | 57.8% | 28.3% | 65.6% |
| Keshad Johnson | F | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.4 | $5.6M | +0.3 | +0.3 | 2.7 | 100.4 | 20.1 | 2.7 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 69.4% |
| Klay Thompson | G-F | -2.0 | -0.7 | -1.3 | $0.0M | +0.1 | -2.3 | 25.7 | 100.2 | 23.9 | 3.4 | 40.3% | 38.8% | 84.6% |
| Myron Gardner | F | -1.2 | -1.5 | +0.3 | $1.2M | -1.2 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 100.6 | 18.1 | 5.1 | 43.7% | 36.0% | 77.4% |
| Nick Richards | C | -2.2 | -2.5 | +0.3 | -$0.2M | -2.2 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 99.9 | 18.4 | 2.0 | 57.8% | 31.3% | 69.6% |
| Nikola Jovic | F | -1.0 | -1.2 | +0.2 | $1.9M | -1.6 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 100.1 | 18.9 | 5.4 | 42.7% | 34.4% | 75.2% |
| Pelle Larsson | G | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | $17.1M | +0.5 | -0.4 | 27.8 | 100.1 | 19.8 | 5.8 | 47.6% | 34.8% | 80.2% |
| Ryan Conwell | G | -1.7 | -1.4 | -0.2 | $1.0M | -1.7 | -2.2 | 12.6 | 100.7 | 19.4 | 6.2 | 41.4% | 34.8% | 79.3% |
| Simone Fontecchio | F | -0.3 | +0.0 | -0.3 | $2.8M | -0.3 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 100.5 | 21.3 | 3.1 | 40.6% | 36.6% | 81.9% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | G | -1.2 | +0.2 | -1.4 | $2.6M | -2.4 | -1.0 | 8.0 | 100.1 | 21.1 | 2.8 | 40.7% | 36.9% | 80.0% |
| Tre Donaldson | G | -2.2 | -1.8 | -0.4 | -$0.6M | -2.2 | -2.8 | 1.5 | 99.9 | 17.7 | 7.2 | 42.1% | 33.6% | 76.5% |
| Vladislav Goldin | C | -3.0 | -2.7 | -0.2 | -$1.7M | -3.0 | -1.8 | 1.5 | 99.8 | 20.0 | 2.3 | 58.0% | 23.8% | 68.2% |
Core outlook
The rotation by projected minutes: age, rating and how long DARKO expects each player to last.
| Player | Age | DPM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 29 | +3.3 | 7.9 | 98% |
| Davion Mitchell | 28 | +0.4 | 6.7 | 95% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | +3.8 | 5.6 | 91% |
| Pelle Larsson | 25 | +0.1 | 6.5 | 90% |
| Klay Thompson | 36 | -2.0 | 1.0 | 10% |
| Andrew Wiggins | 31 | -1.1 | 3.2 | 58% |
| Bobby Portis | 31 | -1.2 | 1.6 | 22% |
| Ryan Conwell | 22 | -1.7 | 3.4 | 50% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 34 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 10% |
Payroll against DARKO value
$228.5M of salary for $180.4M of DARKO fair value. The 12 best-paid players:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo : salary $58.5M, DARKO value $58.5M, surplus +$0.0M
- Bam Adebayo : salary $49.8M, DARKO value $52.2M, surplus +$2.4M
- Andrew Wiggins : salary $30.2M, DARKO value $6.5M, surplus -$23.7M
- Klay Thompson : salary $23.1M, DARKO value $0.0M, surplus -$23.1M
- Nikola Jovic : salary $16.2M, DARKO value $1.9M, surplus -$14.3M
- Bobby Portis : salary $14.5M, DARKO value $4.3M, surplus -$10.2M
- Davion Mitchell : salary $12.4M, DARKO value $24.2M, surplus +$11.8M
- Tim Hardaway Jr. : salary $6.5M, DARKO value $2.6M, surplus -$3.9M
- Dru Smith : salary $2.6M, DARKO value $2.5M, surplus -$0.1M
- Simone Fontecchio : salary $2.4M, DARKO value $2.8M, surplus +$0.4M
- Nick Richards : salary $2.4M, DARKO value -$0.2M, surplus -$2.6M
- Pelle Larsson : salary $2.3M, DARKO value $17.1M, surplus +$14.8M
Top Lineups
| Lineup | Poss | Net +/- | Off +/- | Def +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klay Thompson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson | 115 | +6.3 | +3.3 | +3.0 |
| Klay Thompson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell | 231 | +3.6 | +1.2 | +2.5 |
Worst Lineups
No other lineup is still together.
Lineups whose five players are all on today's roster, from lineup ratings computed November 11, 2026.