Marvin Bagley III
Age 27 · 6'11" · 235 lb · USA
Pick #2, 2018 Draft · Rookie 2019 · 349 games · 2 playoff games
DPM · #311 of 519
-1.2Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-1.2 at age 27 in 2025-26 ranks 667th of 924 age-27 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Donyell Marshall, 1999-00.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Marshall 1999-00 | 26 | -1.4 | +1.6, -1.0, -1.3, -0.9, -0.4 | 90 |
| Kenny Thomas 2004-05 | 27 | -1.4 | -0.8, -1.9, -2.8, under 10 games, -2.1 | 88 |
| Craig Smith 2010-11 | 27 | -1.0 | -1.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Drew Gooden 2007-08 | 26 | -1.6 | -2.8, -2.2, -2.0, -2.0, -2.6 | 87 |
| Glen Davis 2012-13 | 27 | -1.3 | -1.8, -2.5, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Kris Humphries 2011-12 | 27 | -1.0 | -2.2, -1.8, -2.2, -1.9, -2.6 | 86 |
| JaMychal Green 2017-18 | 27 | -1.2 | -0.8, -1.0, +0.1, -1.2, -2.3 | 86 |
| Dario Saric 2019-20 | 26 | -0.8 | +0.1, under 10 games, -0.1, -0.8, -2.4 | 86 |
| Zach Randolph 2007-08 | 26 | -1.0 | -0.5, +0.2, +1.8, +1.8, +1.6 | 86 |
| Jeff Green 2012-13 | 26 | -1.0 | -2.2, -1.9, -2.0, -3.5, -0.9 | 86 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Marvin's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Around the league
Top 10 comps today
Current players closest to Marvin Bagley III's current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.
- -1.2DPMDPM Offense -0.7 Defense -0.5 Per 100 possessions:25.5points15.0rebounds2.9assistsP/R/A100.0
- -1.2DPMDPM Offense -0.8 Defense -0.4 Per 100 possessions:21.6points14.3rebounds3.0assistsP/R/A88.4
- -1.3DPMDPM Offense -0.9 Defense -0.4 Per 100 possessions:24.1points11.7rebounds3.6assistsP/R/A86.0
- -1.0DPMDPM Offense -0.6 Defense -0.3 Per 100 possessions:21.9points12.1rebounds2.5assistsP/R/A85.5
- -0.3DPMDPM Offense -0.1 Defense -0.3 Per 100 possessions:21.9points13.3rebounds3.2assistsP/R/A85.4
- -1.0DPMDPM Offense -1.0 Defense 0.0 Per 100 possessions:22.1points12.4rebounds4.5assistsP/R/A83.8
- -0.5DPMDPM Offense -0.5 Defense -0.1 Per 100 possessions:24.1points13.0rebounds2.5assistsP/R/A83.7
- -1.8DPMDPM Offense -1.4 Defense -0.4 Per 100 possessions:19.9points13.0rebounds5.8assistsP/R/A83.1
- -1.5DPMDPM Offense -1.0 Defense -0.5 Per 100 possessions:23.8points11.0rebounds5.4assistsP/R/A82.6
- -1.5DPMDPM Offense -1.4 Defense -0.1 Per 100 possessions:20.6points10.0rebounds2.9assistsP/R/A82.5
How these matches work
Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.
100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Marvin Bagley III's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $5.5M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $2.3M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$3.2M
- Value minus salary
- WARP
- 0.8
- Wins above replacement
- Seasons left
- 1.2
- Projected
- Retires at
- 28.8
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | DAL | 27 | 60 | 20.0 | -1.23 | -0.70 | -0.53 | 667th of 924 |
| 2024-25 | MEM | 26 | 31 +2 | 8.6 | -0.29 | -0.48 | +0.19 | 480th of 1010 |
| 2023-24 | WAS | 25 | 50 | 21.1 | -0.86 | -0.41 | -0.45 | 617th of 1077 |
| 2022-23 | DET | 24 | 42 | 23.6 | -1.58 | -0.84 | -0.74 | 843rd of 1185 |
| 2021-22 | DET | 23 | 48 | 23.9 | -1.70 | -0.52 | -1.18 | 757th of 1100 |
| 2020-21 | SAC | 22 | 43 | 25.9 | -2.15 | -0.30 | -1.84 | 656th of 813 |
| 2019-20 | SAC | 21 | 13 | 25.7 | -2.17 | -0.66 | -1.51 | — |
| 2018-19 | SAC | 20 | 62 | 25.3 | -1.64 | -0.01 | -1.63 | 198th of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 15.6 projected minutes and a pace of 98.3.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.5 | 8.1 |
| Rebounds | 15.0 | 4.8 |
| Offensive | 5.7 | 1.8 |
| Defensive | 9.4 | 3.0 |
| Assists | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Steals | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Blocks | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Turnovers | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 3-pt attempts | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| FG attempts | 18.1 | 5.8 |
| FT attempts | 5.7 | 1.8 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 56.3% · 32.1% · 66.7% | |