Tolu Smith
Age 26 · 6'11" · 254 lb
Rookie 2025 · 16 games · 3 playoff games
DPM · #302 of 519
-1.1Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd MacCulloch 2001-02 | 26 | -0.7 | -0.9, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 89 |
| Dewayne Dedmon 2015-16 | 26 | -0.9 | +0.1, -0.1, +0.4, 0.0, +0.8 | 88 |
| Willie Reed 2016-17 | 26 | -1.3 | -0.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Emeka Okafor 2007-08 | 25 | -0.8 | +0.6, -0.4, +0.9, +0.2, +0.1 | 88 |
| Etan Thomas 2003-04 | 26 | -1.1 | -2.4, -1.7, -1.1, under 10 games, -2.2 | 87 |
| JaMychal Green 2015-16 | 25 | -0.8 | +0.7, -1.2, -0.8, -1.0, +0.1 | 87 |
| Miroslav Raduljica 2013-14 | 26 | -1.5 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Jerome Moiso 2003-04 | 25 | -1.6 | -1.8, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Mikki Moore 2001-02 | 26 | -0.9 | under 10 games, -0.8, -1.8, -1.8, +0.9 | 87 |
| Tiago Splitter 2010-11 | 26 | -0.4 | +1.5, +2.9, +3.3, +3.2, +2.2 | 86 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Tolu's 2026-27 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Around the league
Top 10 comps today
Current players closest to Tolu Smith's current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.
- -1.1DPMDPM Offense -1.3 Defense +0.3 Per 100 possessions:18.8points17.6rebounds3.9assistsP/R/A100.0
- -1.2DPMDPM Offense -0.8 Defense -0.4 Per 100 possessions:21.6points14.3rebounds3.0assistsP/R/A87.4
- -1.1DPMDPM Offense -1.6 Defense +0.5 Per 100 possessions:20.6points14.1rebounds1.7assistsP/R/A83.3
- -1.1DPMDPM Offense -2.0 Defense +0.9 Per 100 possessions:19.1points14.3rebounds2.5assistsP/R/A82.4
- -1.2DPMDPM Offense -1.7 Defense +0.5 Per 100 possessions:22.0points15.0rebounds2.3assistsP/R/A82.4
- -0.6DPMDPM Offense -1.0 Defense +0.4 Per 100 possessions:22.3points18.3rebounds2.3assistsP/R/A81.8
- -0.7DPMDPM Offense -1.7 Defense +1.1 Per 100 possessions:17.1points17.6rebounds1.7assistsP/R/A81.1
- -2.1DPMDPM Offense -2.3 Defense +0.2 Per 100 possessions:18.8points17.7rebounds1.6assistsP/R/A80.9
- -1.8DPMDPM Offense -1.4 Defense -0.4 Per 100 possessions:19.9points13.0rebounds5.8assistsP/R/A80.8
- -1.2DPMDPM Offense -0.7 Defense -0.5 Per 100 possessions:25.5points15.0rebounds2.9assistsP/R/A80.8
How these matches work
Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.
100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Tolu Smith's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $1.6M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $2.3M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$0.7M
- Value minus salary
- WARP
- 0.1
- Wins above replacement
- Seasons left
- 2.1
- Projected
- Retires at
- 28.4
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 so far | DET | 26 | 0 | — | -1.08 | -1.33 | +0.26 | — |
| 2025-26 | DET | 25 | 15 +3 | 9.2 | -0.15 | -0.75 | +0.61 | — |
| 2024-25 | DET | 24 | 1 | 22.4 | -2.76 | -2.61 | -0.15 | — |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 0.9 projected minutes and a pace of 98.9.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.8 | 0.4 |
| Rebounds | 17.6 | 0.3 |
| Offensive | 7.7 | 0.2 |
| Defensive | 9.9 | 0.2 |
| Assists | 3.9 | 0.1 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Blocks | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| 3-pt attempts | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| FG attempts | 12.3 | 0.2 |
| FT attempts | 7.8 | 0.2 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 58.6% · 17.4% · 59.5% | |