Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Green 2019-20 | 33 | +2.0 | +2.0, +1.6, -0.6, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Metta World Peace 2011-12 | 32 | +1.6 | +1.5, +0.2, under 10 games, -0.7, -1.8 | 87 |
| Shane Battier 2010-11 | 32 | +1.9 | +0.7, +0.7, -0.4, under 10 games, under 10 games | 83 |
| Robert Horry 2002-03 | 32 | +1.9 | +2.1, +2.2, +1.7, +1.1, +0.3 | 82 |
| Andrei Kirilenko 2012-13 | 32 | +2.0 | +0.1, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 82 |
| Andre Iguodala 2015-16 | 32 | +2.9 | +3.2, +2.6, +3.3, +0.6, -1.3 | 81 |
| Tony Allen 2013-14 | 32 | +1.9 | +2.2, +1.4, +0.4, -0.3, under 10 games | 79 |
| Kyle Korver 2012-13 | 32 | +1.8 | +1.3, +2.5, +1.8, -0.5, +0.5 | 79 |
| Jared Dudley 2017-18 | 32 | +1.1 | +0.3, -1.5, -2.3, under 10 games, under 10 games | 79 |
| Patrick Beverley 2020-21 | 32 | +1.2 | +2.0, -1.5, -2.7, under 10 games, under 10 games | 78 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Alex's 2026-27 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Around the league
Top 10 comps today
Current players closest to Alex Caruso's current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.
- +2.2DPMDPM Offense 0.0 Defense +2.2 Per 100 possessions:19.0points7.0rebounds4.9assistsP/R/A100.0
- +1.2DPMDPM Offense -0.4 Defense +1.6 Per 100 possessions:18.7points7.8rebounds2.3assistsP/R/A82.2
- +1.3DPMDPM Offense 0.0 Defense +1.3 Per 100 possessions:18.0points5.2rebounds6.4assistsP/R/A81.8
- +1.5DPMDPM Offense +0.2 Defense +1.3 Per 100 possessions:19.1points6.4rebounds6.2assistsP/R/A80.8
- +1.7DPMDPM Offense +0.4 Defense +1.3 Per 100 possessions:17.5points7.0rebounds2.4assistsP/R/A78.4
- +1.5DPMDPM Offense +0.3 Defense +1.2 Per 100 possessions:19.0points5.0rebounds9.5assistsP/R/A78.0
- +2.2DPMDPM Offense +1.3 Defense +0.9 Per 100 possessions:22.8points6.0rebounds7.2assistsP/R/A76.9
- +1.8DPMDPM Offense +0.7 Defense +1.1 Per 100 possessions:27.3points7.6rebounds5.9assistsP/R/A76.6
- +0.9DPMDPM Offense -1.4 Defense +2.3 Per 100 possessions:14.0points6.3rebounds2.9assistsP/R/A75.0
- +0.7DPMDPM Offense -0.7 Defense +1.4 Per 100 possessions:12.1points6.5rebounds8.0assistsP/R/A73.4
How these matches work
Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.
100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Alex Caruso's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $27.0M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $18.3M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$8.7M
- Value minus salary
- WARP
- 5.7
- Wins above replacement
- Seasons left
- 2.8
- Projected
- Retires at
- 35.4
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 so far | OKC | 32 | 1 | 24.7 | +2.21 | -0.06 | +2.27 | — |
| 2025-26 | OKC | 32 | 56 +15 | 18.2 | +2.27 | -0.03 | +2.30 | 49th of 530 |
| 2024-25 | OKC | 31 | 54 +23 | 19.3 | +2.31 | -0.17 | +2.48 | 72nd of 616 |
| 2023-24 | CHI | 30 | 71 | 28.7 | +1.77 | -0.18 | +1.95 | 114th of 697 |
| 2022-23 | CHI | 29 | 67 | 23.5 | +1.41 | -1.13 | +2.55 | 153rd of 774 |
| 2021-22 | CHI | 28 | 41 +4 | 28.0 | +0.81 | -0.88 | +1.69 | 242nd of 858 |
| 2020-21 | LAL | 27 | 58 +6 | 21.0 | +0.70 | -1.14 | +1.84 | 269th of 924 |
| 2019-20 | LAL | 26 | 64 +21 | 18.4 | +0.95 | -0.79 | +1.74 | 230th of 1010 |
| 2018-19 | LAL | 25 | 25 | 21.2 | -0.22 | -0.65 | +0.43 | 434th of 1077 |
| 2017-18 | LAL | 24 | 37 | 15.2 | -1.27 | -1.88 | +0.60 | 748th of 1185 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 20.8 projected minutes and a pace of 100.0.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.0 | 8.2 |
| Rebounds | 7.0 | 3.0 |
| Offensive | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Defensive | 5.7 | 2.5 |
| Assists | 4.9 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3-pt attempts | 9.2 | 4.0 |
| FG attempts | 14.4 | 6.2 |
| FT attempts | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 44.1% · 35.8% · 78.0% | |









