Ace Bailey Profile — DARKO DPM

Historical comps

Comps & futures

The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.

Comp	Age	DPM then	Next 5 seasons	Match
Jeremy Lamb 2012-13	20	-2.1	-0.2, -0.4, +0.4, -0.1, +0.2	91
Jamal Murray 2016-17	20	-1.6	+0.2, +0.8, +2.2, +2.2, under 10 games	89
Jaylen Brown 2016-17	20	-2.3	+0.5, +0.3, +1.2, +2.2, +4.2	88
JR Smith 2005-06	20	-1.3	-0.5, +1.2, +2.3, +2.4, +2.0	88
Dorell Wright 2005-06	20	-1.6	-1.1, -0.4, under 10 games, +0.5, +0.3	88
Trey Lyles 2015-16	20	-2.3	-2.3, -0.7, -1.3, -1.0, -2.1	88
Otto Porter Jr. 2013-14	20	-1.9	-0.5, +1.3, +2.1, +3.3, +2.4	88
Brandon Ingram 2016-17	19	-2.3	-0.8, -0.6, +0.3, +1.9, +2.7	87
Alec Burks 2011-12	20	-1.7	-0.7, -0.8, -1.8, -0.5, -1.4	87
Cam Reddish 2019-20	20	-1.6	-1.1, -1.3, -1.9, -1.1, -1.6	87

The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Ace's 2026-27 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.

Around the league

Top 10 comps today

Current players closest to Ace Bailey's current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.

1 Ace Bailey UTA Self

-1.8DPMDPM Offense -0.5 Defense -1.2 Per 100 possessions:24.0points8.3rebounds3.2assistsP/R/A
100.0
2 Cam Whitmore DEN ↗

-1.6DPMDPM Offense -0.4 Defense -1.2 Per 100 possessions:26.0points7.9rebounds2.6assistsP/R/A
91.0
3 AJ Dybantsa WAS ↗

-1.7DPMDPM Offense -0.6 Defense -1.1 Per 100 possessions:26.8points9.2rebounds3.8assistsP/R/A
89.9
4 GG Jackson MEM ↗

-2.2DPMDPM Offense -0.8 Defense -1.5 Per 100 possessions:26.7points9.6rebounds3.2assistsP/R/A
89.2
5 Will Riley WAS ↗

-2.4DPMDPM Offense -1.0 Defense -1.4 Per 100 possessions:22.3points6.3rebounds4.2assistsP/R/A
87.7
6 Jett Howard DAL ↗

-1.6DPMDPM Offense -0.5 Defense -1.1 Per 100 possessions:22.8points5.9rebounds3.4assistsP/R/A
87.2
7 Liam McNeeley CHA ↗

-1.8DPMDPM Offense -1.3 Defense -0.5 Per 100 possessions:21.9points8.4rebounds4.0assistsP/R/A
85.5
8 Zaccharie Risacher DAL ↗

-1.9DPMDPM Offense -1.5 Defense -0.4 Per 100 possessions:19.7points9.1rebounds2.9assistsP/R/A
85.5
9 Matas Buzelis CHI ↗

-1.1DPMDPM Offense 0.0 Defense -1.1 Per 100 possessions:26.8points8.8rebounds3.4assistsP/R/A
85.3
10 Tidjane Salaün CHA ↗

-1.7DPMDPM Offense -1.1 Defense -0.6 Per 100 possessions:21.0points11.2rebounds2.3assistsP/R/A
85.2

How these matches work

Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.

100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.

Value

Contract & longevity

DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Ace Bailey's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.

Fair value: $1.7M; DARKO's market estimate
Salary: $9.5M; Actual
Surplus: -$7.8M; Value minus salary
WARP: 0.4; Wins above replacement
Seasons left: 8.1; Projected, within 15
Retires at: 28.8; Projected age

Career

Season by season

DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.

Ace Bailey, season by season
Season	Team	Age	Games	MPG	DPM	Off	Def	For his age
2026-27 so far	UTA	20	11	31.0	-1.78	-0.54	-1.24	—
2025-26	UTA	19	72	27.6	-2.56	-0.85	-1.71	83rd of 109

Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.

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Projections

Projected box score

DARKO's rest-of-season projections per 100 possessions, and per game at 29.9 projected minutes when he plays and a pace of 99.5.

Ace Bailey, projected box score
Stat	Per 100	Per game
Points	24.0	14.9
Rebounds	8.3	5.2
Offensive	2.2	1.4
Defensive	6.1	3.8
Assists	3.2	2.0
Steals	1.5	0.9
Blocks	1.2	0.8
Turnovers	2.4	1.5
3-pt attempts	8.5	5.3
FG attempts	20.0	12.4
FT attempts	2.7	1.7
FG% · 3P% · FT%	44.2% · 34.9% · 78.5%