Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.43
- +3.13 before the first game, +3.56 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.34
- Jan 12 vs TOR · 36 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.20
- Apr 26 vs BOS · 34 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.10
- Last 20 games, vs 0.12 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
+3.6 at age 32 in 2025-26 ranks 26th of 530 age-32 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Paul Pierce, 2009-10.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Pierce 2009-10 | 32 | +3.5 | +4.2, +3.5, +3.2, +1.3, +0.9 | 79 |
| Jimmy Butler 2020-21 | 31 | +3.7 | +4.1, +3.6, +3.5, +2.5, +2.3 | 78 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge 2017-18 | 32 | +3.7 | +3.0, +0.8, -0.9, -1.2, under 10 games | 77 |
| Lamar Odom 2010-11 | 31 | +3.7 | -1.9, +0.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 73 |
| Paul Millsap 2016-17 | 32 | +2.9 | +1.7, +2.3, +1.3, +2.0, -2.1 | 73 |
| Scottie Pippen 1997-98 | 32 | +3.5 | +1.4, +1.8, +1.8, +0.5, +1.7 | 72 |
| Dwyane Wade 2013-14 | 32 | +3.2 | +2.2, +1.4, -0.1, -1.0, -2.0 | 72 |
| Mike Conley 2018-19 | 31 | +4.1 | +0.8, +3.4, +2.4, +0.9, +0.7 | 72 |
| Russell Westbrook 2019-20 | 31 | +2.4 | +2.2, -0.4, +0.6, -0.5, -1.5 | 71 |
| Manu Ginobili 2009-10 | 32 | +4.8 | +5.2, +4.9, +3.0, +4.3, +2.5 | 71 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Joel's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Historical comps
Echoes today
Current players whose ten closest comps include one of Joel Embiid's seasons, at the same age.
- Chet Holmgren OKC like his 2017-18 74
Match score out of 100: how close the current player's season is to that one.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Joel Embiid's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $53.4M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $55.2M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$1.8M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 3.4
- Projected
- Retires at
- 35.8
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | PHI | 32 | 38 +7 | 31.6 | +3.56 | +2.52 | +1.04 | 26th of 530 |
| 2024-25 | PHI | 31 | 19 | 30.2 | +3.46 | +1.35 | +2.11 | — |
| 2023-24 | PHI | 30 | 39 +6 | 33.6 | +6.17 | +4.01 | +2.15 | 12th of 697 |
| 2022-23 | PHI | 29 | 66 +9 | 34.6 | +6.34 | +3.75 | +2.59 | 10th of 774 |
| 2021-22 | PHI | 28 | 68 +10 | 33.8 | +6.33 | +3.91 | +2.42 | 13th of 858 |
| 2020-21 | PHI | 27 | 51 +11 | 31.1 | +5.97 | +3.34 | +2.63 | 12th of 924 |
| 2019-20 | PHI | 26 | 51 +4 | 29.5 | +3.56 | +1.02 | +2.54 | 40th of 1010 |
| 2018-19 | PHI | 25 | 64 +11 | 33.7 | +5.09 | +2.27 | +2.82 | 12th of 1078 |
| 2017-18 | PHI | 24 | 63 +8 | 30.3 | +2.99 | +1.01 | +1.98 | 43rd of 1185 |
| 2016-17 | PHI | 23 | 31 | 25.4 | +2.58 | +0.53 | +2.05 | 35th of 1100 |
| 2015-16 | PHI | 22 | 0 | — | -0.50 | -0.57 | +0.08 | — |
| 2014-15 | PHI | 21 | 0 | — | -0.88 | -0.79 | -0.09 | — |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 24.7 projected minutes and a pace of 94.5.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 33.2 | 16.1 |
| Rebounds | 12.1 | 5.9 |
| Offensive | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Defensive | 9.5 | 4.6 |
| Assists | 6.0 | 2.9 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Blocks | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Turnovers | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 3-pt attempts | 6.1 | 3.0 |
| FG attempts | 25.2 | 12.2 |
| FT attempts | 13.5 | 6.6 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 46.6% · 32.8% · 82.1% | |
